Global bacon prices are set for an escalation in price. Dubbed aporkalypse, the end of September saw inflated reactions from pig farmers in Europe who reacted by hoarding pig herds.

According to a press release by the National Pig Association based in UK, pig farmers around the world were warning of a potential shortage in pork products. This is but one of the many side effects of the drought that persisted during the summer season in USA. Corn fields were hit hard and the output decreased, forcing the price of corn to escalate.

Another summer crop whose output was affected was soy. The price of corn, measured per metric ton, spiraled upwards to US $332.95 (KES 28,300) from US $267.23 (KES 22,714) within one month. Data from indexmundi.com shows that the price was an all-time high and represented an increase of 228% since 1982. The price of soybeans has doubled to more than $600 (KES 51,000) in five years.

These two products are constituents of pig feed and an increase in their price will trickle down to the feed’s price and the pork products. The European Farmers Union for example, had already started amassing their pig herds. The England industry output was forecast to drop by potentially 20%, making the feeding process more expensive. Ultimately, the consumer would end up paying more for pork. This problem however, may only temporary and not as disastrous as the international media made it.

So how does it affect you?

Kenya imports maize from the regional and international markets. An announcement by the agriculture ministry earlier this year indicated that Kenya was expected to import 67,500 tons of maize in the six months to June. According to KuzaBiashara, the ministry later this year advised an additional 300,000 bags to bridge the gap between imports and harvest in September. Reliance on imports would make our production susceptible to the international market forces. Basically, the extent of the effect of the summer drought in USA depends on Kenya’s reliance on imports.

According to an article by Xinhua on CapitalFM, the overall maize output is expected to be lower by up to 25%. Reasons for this output range from poor availability of inputs, to heightened pre and post-harvest losses due to short rains. Couple these with our susceptibility to the drought in USA and you have a basis for increased human and livestock feed. Maize is used in many of our dishes from ugali to pastry. On the agricultural perspective, it’s a core feed for livestock. More expensive feed results in reduced livestock output by farmers, which in turn strains supply in the local market. Therein lays the increased food prices.