Of Fuel Price Increases and the Effects on Inflation

In a statement released by the Energy Regulatory Commission, the pump price of Super petrol in Nairobi has increased by Kshs. 6.81 to Kshs. 118.50 per litre. Diesel prices increased by Kshs. 3.67 to Kshs. 108.8 and Kerosene by Kshs. 2.81 to Kshs. 86.28 (read more on this story here). That 45-litre-tank petrol car of yours will cost Kshs. 306.45 more to fill her up each time. That you can live with, you did afford to buy the car in the first place.

So what then?

The problem is inflation. Goods manufactured in Thika for instance will be driven up to Kericho for sale in a supermarket there. That fuel price hike will increase their transport costs and as a result the manufacturer will increase the cost of the goods. Nakumatt or Naivas will in turn raise their prices for the same goods and your bill will increase. The problem is that your boss will not increase your salary, at least not every time inflation rises or reduce it each time inflation drops. This is because the firm is not doing too well financially, with reduced revenue caused by fewer sales. The fewer sales are caused because the firm has raised its prices because costs have increased and consumers are minimising their expenses to the bare necessities (and your product is not considered a necessity). All of this because of inflation.

Last year Kenyans felt the might of inflation with it soaring to almost 20% and the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Kenya trying everything to get it under control. Now we're at 15.61%,  a far cry from the government's 9% inflation target and we were slowly getting there until last week's fuel price increase. With this recent news, expect inflation to increase. Fuel accounts for 4.2% of the weighting used to calculate inflation while power accounts for 5%, and these two elements are used in virtually every manufacturing process. However, with the onset of the long rains, there could be some respite for Kenyans in a few months time, if the rainfall is sufficient and crop yields are good (causing their prices to fall).

The Energy Regulatory Commission needs to get its house in order and get fuel prices under control. Fuel prices can't be going up and down every other month. It's bad for business and for the economy. And for you and me.

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