Latest statistics from Abu Dhabi National Oil Company show a 3.4 percent rise in international crude oil prices. The Free On Board (FOB) price of Murban crude oil lifted in September 2012 was posted at USD 115.40 per barrel from 111.65 per barrel in August 2012.

Price of other crude types in the Arab peninsular such as L Zakum, Umm Shaif and U Zakum also increased by an average of 3.6 percent in the period between August 2012 and September 2012.

Statistics from Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) show that the shilling depreciated against the dollar over the month of September 2012 in comparison to August 2012. Weekly reports from CBK show all through September, with exemption of the week ending September 13, the Shilling weakened against the dollar.

While it might be too early to speculate, the observed rise in international crude oil prices and weakening of the Shilling could result in rise in local fuel prices.

The latest fuel price review, released on 14 September 2012, saw an increase in local retail fuel prices. The price of super petrol increased by KES 2.47, diesel increased by KES 3.99 and kerosene increased by KES 5.68 per litre in Nairobi. This increase was attributed to upward trend in the prices of crude and refined petroleum products in the international market over the last three months. The Shilling though improved marginally in August 2012 as compared to July 2012.

This may have a large impact on October's price review. Keep reading pesatalk to see what we think will happen