With 4 days to the of the month, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) is expected to release Consumer Price Indices (CPI) and overall rate of inflation for the month of November 2012, probably on 30 November 2012.

CPI measures change in the price level of consumer goods and services purchased by households. Inflation is a measure of the increase of the CPI.

Bearing in mind the different changes in price of consumer goods and services, witnessed in November, this is what to expect:

Fuel prices dropped in November as compared to July. The price of super petrol, for instance, dropped by KES 1.58 to stand at KES 113.68 while that of diesel dropped by KES 0.26 to stand at KES 115.54. The overall effect of this is a possible drop in the Transport index. Statistics from KNBS show that the Transport index increased in October as compared to September following rise in fuel prices over the month of October.

There could also be a drop in the Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other fuels’ index following the recent drop in electricity bills and kerosene prices. Fuel cost levy charged on electricity bills dropped to KES 5.95 per kilowatt hour in November 2012 from KES 6.08 per kilowatt hour in October 2012. The Forex Adjustment rate also dropped to KES 0.90 per unit from KES 2.24 in October 2012 resulting in a 8.08 percent drop in electricity bills. The price of kerosene dropped by KES 1.14 and there could also be a drop in gas prices following the recent drop in fuel prices.

It’s difficult to determine what to expect from the Food and Non Alcoholic drink’s index which is determined by data collected in 25 data collection zones located in 13 urban centers. The Food and Non Alcoholic drinks index though increase by 0.23 percent in October as compared to September.

Bearing in mind possible drop in the Housing, Water, Electricity. Gas and Other fuels’ index and the Transport index, the net effect could be a drop in the CPI which in the recent past has been on an increase. If CPI drops this could result in a drop in the overall inflation rate which currently stands at 4.14 percent.