The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) is expected to review fuel pump prices for the period 15^th June 2012 to 15^th July 2012 by the end of this week. We project a drop in pump prices following a decline in international crude oil prices. The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company posted the price of Murban crude oil at 110.60 USD in May 2012, a drop in price from 121 USD in April 2012.

Based on the above price movement, we calculated the expected pump prices for the period beginning 15^th June 2012 to 15^th July 2012. Our calculations are based on the relationship between the price of crude oil in the international market and the prices set by ERC over the past 12 months. It is important to note, we took the assumption that costs associated with refining, production, transportation and prevailing taxes remained constant.

Based on this, we expect that ERC will lower the price of super petrol to KES 113.83, diesel to KES 105.58 and kerosene to KES 80.94. The current prices are KES 121.13 for super petrol, KES108.8 for diesel and KES86.28 for kerosene.

Our projected prices are estimates of what ERC shall post as fuel pump prices for the period beginning 15^th June 2012 to 15^th July 2012. The actual prices that the regulator will post may be different.

These projected prices are for Nairobi only.