This might be the hardest investment advice to take, but it might be the best you will ever get. It feels warm to be in the crowd, but numbers are warmer. So resist the crowd, and cherish the numbers. Jeremy Grantham in what he calls ‘The longest quarterly letter ever’ appearing on the financial site ZeroHedge has a few words for young investors. In one of the tips, Jeremy encourages these individuals setting out on the dangerous investment voyages to stay on their lane, watch the numbers and ignore the crowds and all the clutter and temptation that come with the crowd.
“The enthusiasm of a crowd is hard to resist. Watching neighbors get rich at the end of a bubble while you sit it out patiently is pure torture. The best way to resist is to do your own simple measurements of value, or find a reliable source (and check their calculations from time to time). Then hero-worship the numbers and try to ignore everything else. Ignore especially short-term news: the ebb and flow of economic and political news is irrelevant. Stock values are based on their entire future value of dividends and earnings going out many decades into the future.”
Jeremy Grantham echoes what we have been saying all through, and not just in investment, but also in our spending culture. The crowds aren’t always good for you. Do not buy just because your neighbor bought. Do not move out just because your neighbor did. Watch your wallet. Know your lane, and stay on it. This is not to mean that you shouldn’t work towards bettering your current financial status. Sometimes the pressure is good. It pushes you to work harder. But other times, it impoverishes you. Resist the crowd. Cherish the numbers.